Top Tier :
Jimmy Graham vs. Buffalo Bills ($4,500)
The Bills have had a rollercoaster start to their season. Blown out in Week 1 by the Ravens, chasing points all afternoon against the Chargers in Week 2, and getting the surprise win of the season, thus far, in Minnesota. What has been consistent is their inability to deal with TEs.
The Bills are allowing 15.1 fantasy points per game to the TE position, and two of the first three weeks, they faced a hodge-podge of them. Flacco made his relevant – 9/13, 103 yards; Philip Rivers completed 3 of 4 passes for 55 yards to Virgil Green and Antonio Gates, and Kirk Cousins completed 6 of 7 passes for 55 yards and a score to Kyle Rudolph and someone named Tyler Conklin. The Aaron Rodgers/Jimmy Graham combo they’ll face in Week 4 should be a much harder situation to deal with.
Graham has 13 receptions on 19 targets for 148 yards – a nice 11.4 yards per catch average – but has yet to find the endzone. That’s where he was supposed to be doing the majority of his damage this season. I’m expecting that to start this week.
Green Bay has had a rollercoaster start to their season too – seemingly almost losing Rodgers to a knee injury – but it seems that part of the ride is over, and it’s back to business. If you’re looking to get away from the high priced chalk at TE, and looking to avoid punting the position all together, Graham is a solid choice @ $4500 on Draftkings in Week 4.
Trey Burton vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($3,900)
The Buccaneers defense is horrendous. The End……..I’ll elaborate a bit, but that’s the basic selling point. I can’t really say that Burton has been tearing it up. He’s caught 8 of 9 targets he’s seen for 75 yards and a score over the last two weeks. That’s certainly reasonable, and would make him a decent tournament play @ $3900, but this matchup makes him a GREAT play.
The Bears are currently a 3 point home favorite in a game with a 46 point projected total. Right in that spot where they likely can’t just shut their offense down, but not in a position to have to be slinging it down the field all day, either. A scenario where Mitchell Trubisky will be tasked to simply ‘keep the chains moving’ is the exact spot you want to be playing Burton in. That spot versus the Buccaneers, makes it even better. The Bucs have allowed the 2nd most fantasy points to the TE position so far, and just got lit up by Vance MacDonald for 112 yards on 4 receptions, including a 75 yard score.
Allen Robinson, Jordan Howard and Taylor Gabriel are all in play this week for DFS purposes, but Burton is the cheapest of the bunch (Gabriel is also $3900) and TE is always a spot starved for low-end reliability. I will have Burton in my cash lineups this week.
Lower Tier (Less than $5k):
Ryan Griffin @ Indianapolis Colts ($2,600)
Yes, he’s in the active player pool, just keep scrolling down…Keep going, keep going, you’ll get to him eventually. There’s not really anything great about playing a $2600 player, not even at TE. It’s the skill position spot where the vast majority of people pay down, obviously, but it still doesn’t feel great. It’s strictly a salary saving play that lets you jam in some stud-plays, with the hope that they do some kind of ‘Marcedes Lewis impression’ and find the endzone once or twice..or three times… I know, that’s not very realistic, but it can happen. The Colts defense has been much better than most of us thought they would be, but they’ve been funnelling targets to the middle of the field and TEs have been loving it:
Bengals TEs: 5 catches for 57 yards.
Jordan Reed: 6 catches for 55 yards.
Dallas Goedert: 7 catches, on 7 targets, for 73 yards and a score.
At $2600 can Ryan Griffin pay off for you in tournaments this week? The last three weeks’ production versus the Colts suggests that he can.
Brad Moore – Jaguars vs. New York Jets ($4,100)
Anyone who I discuss DFS with knows that my first rule of lineup building is: Pick your DST first, then build around it; don’t worry about the price, just play the best play, and worry about the price later – only if it’s ridiculously high – and adjust. This rule comes into play this week, because the Jaguars defense is arguably ‘ridiculously high,’ though I will have more exposure to them than any other defense. They’re at home, in a low-total game, that Leonard Fournette is expected to play in, against a rookie QB in Sam Darnold who has yet to face a defense of this caliber in terms of both pass rush and pass coverage.
It’ll be “set it, and forget it” in about 65% of my lineups this week at DST, when I just plug in the Jags and move on. Good luck this week!