Top Tier :
Brad Moore – Jarvis Landry @ Oakland Raiders ($7,400)
I like to focus on the game that’s played on the field, and not any of the extra-curricular stuff; like the pronunciation of someone’s name, for example. There are fewer such distractions in Cleveland this week. Baker Mayfield has been, officially, named the starting QB heading into Sunday’s matchup in Oakland and he’ll be looking to build on his successful debut in week 3. That’s going to mean A LOT of Jarvis Landry.
Landry has been targeted 37 times in the first 3 games of the season. That’s 5th most in the league, only trailing Adam Thielen, Antonio Brown, Michael Thomas and Juju Smith-Schuster. He’s also averaging 13.9 yards per reception, which is more than any of those four players.. That’s not a typo; I triple checked it. Mayfield was 7/9 targeting Landry for 91 yards last week. Those 9 targets represented 53% of the WR targets; the 7 receptions 54%, and the 91 yards was 65% of the total WR yardage, and 45% of Mayfield’s total passing yardage.
Oakland is currently a 2.5 point home favorite, so this game will likely be close. There will be lots of opportunity in the passing game, and we’ve seen whether it’s been Mayfield or the other guy – I’m not sure what his name is – under center, Landry will be peppered with targets. He’s a solid cash game play this week.
Joe Pollock – Davante Adams vs. Buffalo Bills ($7,800)
The Buffalo Bills are surrendering a Receiver Air Conversion Ratio of 1.14. That's the fourth highest number in the NFL (for an explanation of what RACR is, check out this Josh Hermsmeyer article on RotoViz). In a nutshell, Buffalo has allowed opposing receivers to accumulate yardage at a ridiculous clip on a per-air-yard basis. The Bills are allowing almost 40 points per game to the wide receiver position. That number isn't astronomical, but they've allowed seven passing touchdowns in three weeks.
The Vegas implied total for the Packers this week is just a hair shy of 28 points. There will be scoring, and with Jimmy Graham (Knee/Illness) sidelined for Wednesday's practice and limited in Thursday's, Adams' already astronomical touchdown upside is edging even higher. His 2018 to date has been a touch underwhelming, but he's still leading one of the highest powered offenses in all of the league in targets and has scored three touchdowns in three games. Adams is tied for third in the NFL in red zone targets at the wide receiver position, and that's not changing. He has the potential to find the end zone every single week.
Brad Moore – Allen Robinson vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,900)
What do you think of this stat line: 34/44, 362 yards and 2 TDs? Would you be happy if you had a primary piece of the offense that put up these numbers in a given week? I think we would all be happy with that, right? Well, this is what the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have given up on AVERAGE through the first 3 weeks. Enter Allen Robinson.
Robinson has accounted for 33% of Mitchell Trubisky’s passing yards, and 55% of the team’s total WR receiving yards. He’s the team’s overall target leader, including a team-leading 5 red zone targets, 2 of which came inside the 10 yard line, and 2 inside the 5. There is no reason to believe that trend won’t continue against a Bucs defense, that simply has no answer on defense.
The Bears defense has been very good in the first three weeks, so it’s not unreasonable to have some hesitation in rostering Robinson, based on a perceived game script where the Bears get up early and simply limit Trubisky’s exposure to mistakes and go run-heavy, but if it gets to that point, it’s likely because they’ve done enough in the pass game already, and that means that Robinson has already reached value for you.
Also, those fears can be tempered by the fact that the Bucs offense has been LETHAL thus far, so the current 3 point spread should put your mind at ease if you’re thinking that the Bears will run away and hide in this game. Robinson has been a red zone beast throughout his career and has shown that he will continue to be utilized as a go-to in the scoring area. I think you can roster him with confidence in cash games or tournaments.
Joe Pollock – Kenny Stills @ New England Patriots ($5,800)
The Vegas over/under for the Dolphins @ Patriots game is the third highest in the main slate on Sunday. The mid-tier options at the wide receiver position this week are not plentiful, but Stills is a rare bright spot in a sea of mediocrity. With ownership projections in the low single digits, Miami's speedster is an incredible pseudo-contrarian option at a solid price-point.
Stills is delivering the fifth highest WR Rating (passer rating when being targeted) in all of the NFL. Ryan Tannehill's deep passing ability is flat-out underrated. His passer rating on balls thrown to the left side downfield is 24 points higher than the league average. Who's the guy being targeted on passes 50% of those passes? You guessed it. Kenny Stills.
The Patriots defense has been atrocious through three weeks in 2018. They rank fifth worst in air-yards allowed, 12th worst in receiving yards allowed, and are tied for seventh worst in passing touchdowns allowed. New England is allowing the fifth most points to the wide receiver position of any team in DraftKings Sunday main slate. They're coming off a performance in which all three Detroit Lions primary options at wide receiver logged catch rates above 66 percent and scored double-digit points. All this in a game that saw Matthew Stafford attempt only 36 passes? Sign me up for all the Stills I can get this week.
Lower Tier :
Brad Moore – Tyler Boyd @ Atlanta Falcons ($4,600)
It’s week 4, right? I have to ask for clarification because all I hear is that it’s ‘Tyler Boyd Chalk Week’. $4600 for a guy going against the well-documented depleted defense of Atlanta is something that should interest everyone, and apparently, does interest everyone based on his projected ownership this week.
Boyd has 15 receptions on 21 targets for 249 yards and 2 TDs this season. AJ Green has 16 receptions on 25 targets for 219 yards. Boyd has a higher yards per target, and per reception than Green, and Green comes at a premium Draftkings price of $7500 this week AND has been dealing with a hip injury. He says it’s “no big deal”, and it certainly seems that it isn’t, but Boyd has no such uncertainty.
I’ll remind you of what I’ve already mentioned in the QBs Article when I pointed out what a great play Andy Dalton is this week: The Falcons have allowed 91 completions, 3rd most in the league, along with a 71% completion rate. I’ll also remind you of Boyd’s $4,600 price tag. Plug him in both cash and tournaments.
Joe Pollock – Sterling Shepard vs. New Orleans Saints ($4,900)
The New Orleans Saints have allowed the third most receiving yards with 1,106 and are tied with the Pittsburgh Steelers have allowed the most passing touchdowns with 10. Sweet. Fire up all the Odell Beckham Jr. you can fit in your lineups! OBJ is a great play this week, but if you're looking for a pay-down option with the same kind of upside, it's Sterling Shepard, and looking at the numbers, he just might be the better play. Through Week 3, number one WRs have accrued 307 yards and one touchdown. Number two WRs? 373 yards and SIX touchdowns. Just take a look at the stat lines:
Week 1 – Desean Jackson: 5 receptions, 146 yards, 2 touchdowns
Week 2 – Antonio Callaway: 3 receptions, 81 yards, 1 touchdown
Week 3 – Calvin Ridley: 7 receptions, 146 yards, 3 touchdowns
Don't chase the points this week with Calvin Ridley at projected ownerships creeping past the 10 percent mark. Chase the matchup against a battered and beaten New Orleans secondary. Shepard's projected ownership is in the mid-single-digits. The Giants are without their pass-catching tight end in Evan Engram (Knee), and Shepard is coming off of a 6/80/1 performance @ Houston. A stack with Eli Manning leaves ample room for pay-up options like Ezekiel Elliott and Michael Thomas this week.