Week 13 DraftKings Picks

Quarterbacks

Top Tier :   

Cam Newton @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6600)

We have a full 13-game main slate this week, so there are lots of great plays to choose from.  At the top of the QB heap, the cash game play is quite clear – it's Cam Newton vs. the Bucs. There's no need to over-complicate it. The Bucs get smashed by QBs, Cam has as good a cash game floor as anyone, with high upside to match. 

The Bucs allow 2.36 passing touchdowns per game – the most in the league. They allow the sixth most passing yards per game – 291.45, and the fourth most Draftkings points per game – 22.99, to Qbs. Newton threw for 247 yards, 2 touchdowns and ran 11 times for another 33 yards back in week 9 vs. the Bucs. Considering the Panthers scored 42 points in that game and Cam only had 21.18 DK points, he was extremely unlucky; he could've just as easily had 40. 

I'm still not sure exactly how I'm going to construct my cash game lineups, but I do know that Newton is my QB if I'm paying up.  

Mid-Tier :

Lamar Jackson @ Atlanta Falcons ($5900)

Jackson was my mid-tier pick for last week, as well. I commented that @ $5700, it sort of felt like a reach. Well, this week @ $5900, it certainly doesn't feel like anything than other than a LOCK play. We haven't seen anything close to his ceiling yet, and his floor is about as good as it gets. 

In his first start, he only attempted 19 passes, he didn't score a touchdown in the air or on the ground, threw an interception, fumbled, and still had 19.9 DK points. Last week,  he attempted only 25 passes, had two total touchdowns, two interceptions, fumbled, and still got you 22.2 DK points. Those matchups were against the Bengals and the Raiders, and this week he gets the Falcons. Let the good times roll. 

The Falcons are ranked 29th in pass DVOA and 31st vs. the rush, earning them the honor of being ranked 32nd overall. Jackson should have plenty of great opportunities in both the running and passing games this week. 

Lower Tier :

Chase Daniel @ New York Giants ($4800)

This might be the best sub-$5000 QB play of the season, thus far. Last week @ Detroit, Daniel showed he was quite capable of delivering value at his low-salary ($4400) by putting up 19.4 DK points. This week, he has a similarly advantageous matchup @ the Giants. 

 The Bears are ranked in the bottom five teams in the league in terms of adjusted line yards, and the Giants have the 27th ranked pass defense. If they're going to reach or surpass their 25 point implied total, it'll be done through the air. I wouldn't be comfortable playing Daniel in cash games, but he makes for a decent tournament play at this price.   


Running Backs

Top Tier :   

Christian McCaffrey @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8800)

This is the spot. It's been the spot, and it will continue to be the spot until wholesale changes are made by Tampa Bay. Cam Newton / McCaffrey stacks will be all over the DFS landscape this Sunday, for good reason. 

McCaffrey is coming off an explosive week 12 performance in which he tallied 52.7 Draftkings points. He's already lit up the Bucs once this season. In week 9, he put up 32.7 DK points on 22 touches against them. Did I mention the Panthers have a 29 point implied total? Yeah, there's that. 

In cash games this week, he's a lock play for me. His ownership should be high enough that fading him will be a very, very risky thing to do.  

Mid-Tier :

Phillip Lindsay @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5400)

The Bengals season has been in free-fall mode for several weeks now. The defense has been consistently bad all season, and the effort level looks like it's getting worse of late. 

The Broncos are 4.5 point road favorites against the Bengals' 30th ranked rush defense, and 32nd ranked defense vs. pass catching RBs. Lindsay should absolutely roll in this game. Royce Freeman will steal some carries from him, but @ $5400, that isn't a big deterrent from loading up on Phillip Lindsay this week. 

He's one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. He's a definite cash game play for me, and as long as his ownership isn't projected to be astronomical – and I don't think it will be – I'll be overweight on the field in tournaments, also. 

Lower Tier :

T.J. Yeldon vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4400)

T.J. Yeldon is in play this week, primarily because Leonard Fournette lost his mind last week and started throwing punches on the sideline, and also because Blake Bortles is bad at football (as we all know) and it's led to his benching in favor of Cody Kessler. So, this is pretty self-explanatory, right?

The Jags have been a disaster. Cody Kessler has, largely, been one as well. Carlos Hyde's touches will, presumably, be limited by a game-script that will not favor him. It seems to me that the only bright spot from a fantasy perspective on the Jags' side is T.J. Yeldon. A $4400 price tag is pretty interesting in this spot, indeed. 

The Colts rank 28th vs. pass catching RBs. Yeldon is about the Jags best option in this spot, when you consider game-script, and their QB situation. At the lower end, I like this play. Even for cash, if you need to. 



Wide Receivers

Top Tier :   

Tyreek Hill @ Oakland Raiders ($9100)

I typically shy away from paying for the top WR on the board, especially when that WR is $9100. I have no such concerns this week with Hill. The Chiefs have a 35 point implied total, on the road – where Tyreek thrives – against the 32nd ranked pass defense. It's a fantastic spot. 

On the road this season, he's averaging 7 receptions, 123 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. That's good for 30.2 Draftkings points. He's had at least 42 DK points in three games – 45.3, 42.2 and 46.5. 

Ownership should be tempered by his big price tag, which makes him a great tournament option as well as a cash game play. He may not make my cash game lineup, but he's definitely my favorite WR on the slate. 

Mid-Tier : 

Corey Davis vs. New York Jets ($5500)

I'm no fan of Corey Davis as a football player. I actually don't think he's a very good player. That being said, he's the clear #1 for the Titans, he sees a lot of targets and he's not priced like it. 

Davis has had two games of at least 23.5 DK points in his last three – 28.5 and 23.5. The Titans are a 9 point home favorite, with a 25 point implied team total. If they're getting there, Davis is going to be involved. 

Lower Tier :

Josh Reynolds @ Detroit Lions  ($4900)

With Cooper Kupp out, Josh Reynolds has become an active part of the Rams offense. A Rams offense that is lighting up the scoreboard every week. In a happy coincidence, the Lions secondary is getting lit up every week! I think this could work out. 

The Lions have given up 330 passing yards, or more, in two of their last three games – games against the Bears and Panthers – and now they get to face Jared Goff? This is a great spot for Reynolds @ only $4900.


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Tight Ends

Top Tier :   

Travis Kelce @ Oakland Raiders ($7000)

It's Travis Kelce's turn this week. It's not completely arbitrary, however – he's facing the Oakland Raiders. The league's worst pass defense, in terms of DVOA, and also the worst, specifically against TEs, will have to deal with the Chiefs offense this week. 

Kansas City has an implied team total of 34.75 – the highest of the week. The ONLY thing not to like about Kelce this week is his $7000 price tag. It's a bit prohibitive, but like I mentioned regarding Tyreek Hill, the high price will keep ownership down so you can play him more comfortably in tournaments. 

Lower Tier :

Cameron Brate vs. Carolina Panthers ($3700)

This is a really nice price for Brate. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns in the league to TEs this season. They've allowed 9 on the season, in 11 games. We know Jameis Winston loves targeting his TEs. Matter of fact, Brate caught an early touchdown last week vs. the 49ers. He's a nice play at a low price this week. 

Good Luck in Week 13!

Brad Moore is a DFS contributor for TheFantasyTakeaway.com. You can find him on Twitter @Bam79x  or contact him by email at Brad@TheFantasyTakeaway.com

Week 12 Draftkings Picks

Quarterbacks

Top Tier :   

 Andrew Luck vs. Miami Dolphins ($6400)

This is the third week in a row that I've mentioned Andrew Luck. This week, for the first time, he's priced in the top tier. His elite performances – and other great QB options being on the Thanksgiving Day slate –  have finally forced the Draftkings salary-makers to bump his price over $6000. 

Luck has 29 touchdowns on the season now. He's thrown at least three in  seven straight games. He's at home this week vs. a Miami team that despite facing the fourth fewest pass attempts per game over the last four weeks  – 29 – are allowing the sixth most passing touchdowns per game over that span – 2.33. 

The Colts have the highest implied total of any team on the main slate – 30 – and are 10 point home favorites. Luck is averaging 26.4 Draftkings points at home this season; he has 16 touchdowns, only 2 interceptions and averages 304 passing yards per game at Lucas Oil Stadium. He's an automatic play for me, yet again, this week. 

Mid-Tier :

Lamar Jackson vs. Oakland  Raiders ($5700)

This seems like such a reach, but it really isn't. A home QB, favored by double-digits, under $6000 vs. a team that has totally quit. I know, I know  – ‘but, they won last week!' Yes, the Raiders won last week, against an Arizona team that just hasn't been playing solid football all season. Josh Rosen completed just nine of twenty passes in the game. 

Lamar Jackson certainly isn't going to stand in the pocket and shred defenses with his arm at this stage of his career, but he looked alright in his start last week completing 13 of 19 passes. He runs the ball a little bit, too. He rushed TWENTY-SEVEN TIMES for 117 yards last week vs. Cincinnati. I certainly don't expect that kind of rush volume, but now that he's shown that, he should get more opportunities to look downfield as teams try to contain him in the pocket. 

As usual, the Raiders will provide no resistance defensively, and with a solid start under his belt, I expect Jackson to at least match his 19.7 DK points from week 11 this week.

Mid-Tier :

Russell Wilson @ Carolina Panthers ($5600)

Russell Wilson is less expensive than Lamar Jackson this week. That's certainly an indictment against the Raiders, which is reasonable, but Russ' pass volume has been up, he's facing a secondary that over the last four weeks has allowed 3.0 passing touchdowns per game – the second most in the league, and more than the Raiders – and he's actually been better on the road, averaging 20.1 DK points with 14 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions. 

The Seahawks are a 3 point road underdog, and the Panthers have faced only 19.2 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks – the eighth fewest over that span – so Wilson should see a high number of pass attempts. He's a nice play at this price, and may go overlooked in tournaments this week. 


Running Backs

Top Tier :   

Nick Chubb @ Cincinnati Bengals ($6300)

This is definitely the cheapest ‘top-tier' RB I've liked this season. Between the Thanksgiving Day slate and the teams on bye, Chubb is actually my overall top RB this week. On the road, as a 3 point underdog seems like an odd place to find a ‘lock-and-load' cash game RB, but that's what he is this week. 

The Bengals are on the list; the list of teams you want to target every week. Last week, the Lamar Jackson / Gus Edwards – led Ravens rushed for 265 yards @ a 4.9 yards per carry clip. Read that again, and tell me you don't like Chubb @ $6300.

Chubb is coming off a 20 carry, 3 catch, 209 yard, 2 touchdown, 38.9 Draftkings point game. Now, he gets an even better matchup. I'll have heavy exposure to him this week vs. the Bengals. 

Mid-Tier :

Marlon Mack vs. Miami Dolphins ($5500)

What makes a good cash game RB? A home favorite = check; not just a home favorite, but a 9 point home favorite. A high game total = check; not just a high game total, but a 30 point team total – the highest on the slate. A matchup vs. a bad run defense = check; not only are the Dolphins bad vs. the rush, they're allowing 134 rush yards per game over the last month @ 5.7 yards per carry – 134 rush yards per game is fourth most in the league over that time. 

At $5500, with ALL the boxes checked, Mack is a lock for me in cash lineups. 

Lower Tier :

Josh Adams vs. New York Giants ($3800)

This might be the biggest miss on the slate in terms of pricing. It might also be reasonable, based on the fact that his touches aren't guaranteed. Even if they are, he only had 10 total touches last week, but he did find the endzone to buoy his score, as he finished with 16.2 DK points (@ a $3300 price tag).

The Eagles are a 6 point home favorite vs. a Giants' defense that has allowed the third most rush yards per game over the last month – 135.3 @ 5.3 yards per carry. 

IF Adams is going to be the primary RB in this game, and something to that effect is announced prior to the game, he's going to be the chalk play this week. At $3800, you eat this good chalk, and move on. 


Wide Receivers

Top Tier :   

Odell Beckham Jr. @ Philadelphia Eagles ($8800)

The Eagles' secondary is in shambles. It's been bad all year, and all of their starters are now out. For the second consecutive week, Odell Beckham is my favorite play at the top of the WR heap. 

The knock on OBJ this year is his QB. That's a fair criticism. Eli Manning is nothing more than ‘serviceable' at this point. However, in spots where we've expected him to ‘be good' – he has been. That's all that's needed for Beckham to pay off his price tag. 

The really exciting thing about OBJ is that he hasn't had that game yet. That 10 catch, 200 yard, 2 touchdown game that you KNOW is coming at some point. With all the injuries in the Eagles' defensive backfield, this could be the week for OBJ. 

Mid-Tier : 

Doug Baldwin @ Carolina Panthers ($5100)

The season has been a write-off for the most part, thus far, for Doug Baldwin. He's been dealing with various injuries since the outset. It looks like he's now healthy –  much healthier than he's been, certainly – and it's translating into performance on the field. 

He saw 10 targets last week, catching 7 of them for 52 yards and a touchdown. That's what I've been expecting from him for a few weeks already. 

This week, he gets a road matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season – the second most in the league. 

Lower Tier :

Danny Amendola @ Indianapolis Colts ($4600)

Play someone from the Miami offense? It does make me a bit uncomfortable, but it makes sense. At $4600, in this matchup, Danny Amendola is a solid play. He's a cash game play if you need to save salary. 

Over the last five weeks, Amendola has seen 41 targets – 8.2 per game. He's averaging 14.5 DK points per game over that period, with a high game of 20.4, and only one game under 10 – 9.7 vs. the Jets in week nine. 

He's averaging over 3x value over the last five games at this salary. It does seem like a thin play, but it's actually quite solid. 

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Tight Ends

Top Tier :   

George Kittle @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6200)

The TE category continues to be a wasteland outside of the top couple of options. Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski are two of the top-priced players, and sandwiched between them is George Kittle, in a plus matchup against Tampa Bay. 

Kittle has had at least 75 yards in seven of the ten games he's played. He's averaging just over seven targets per game, and 15.4 Draftkings points per game. All he needs to do is have an average game, and find the endzone for him to pay off in all formats. There's a good chance of that this week. The Bucs are allowing the second most DK points per game to TEs this season, and giving up touchdowns at the fourth highest rate. 

Lower Tier :

Nick Vannett @ Carolina Panthers ($2700)

The team that allows more points to the TE position is the Carolina Panthers. They've given up nine touchdowns to TEs in ten games. Russell Wilson spreads his redzone targets around – Doug Baldwin has seven; David Moore, six ; Vannett, five – so Nick should be in line to get a look in the scoring area. At $2700, he's as good a punt play as there is. 


Good Luck in Week 12!

Brad Moore is a DFS contributor for TheFantasyTakeaway.com. You can find him on Twitter @Bam79x  or contact him by email at Brad@TheFantasyTakeaway.com

Week 11 Draftkings Picks

Quarterbacks

Top Tier :   

 Carson Wentz @ New Orleans Saints ($6300)

There are some really nice options at the top of the QB heap this week. Cam Newton is a very attractive play, as is Drew Brees. Wentz is priced between those two guys and is in arguably the best spot. 

This game has a 56 point implied total, with the Eagles being an 8.5 point underdog. The Saints have been extremely stout against the rush – they currently have the 3rd best rush defense in terms of DVOA – and the Eagles are a pass-first team, so it definitely figures that Wentz will be passing the ball a lot. The Eagles are passing the ball 39 times a game on average, and this game will most certainly be be over that. While the Saints have been stout against the rush, they've been shredded through the air. They currently have the 29th ranked pass DVOA. 

Of the guys at the top, I think Wentz has the easiest path to the highest volume, and for cash games, that's what we're looking for from our QBs; guaranteed volume against bad pas defenses. 


Mid-Tier :

Andrew Luck vs. Tennessee Titans ($5900)

Luck was my mid-tier pick – and cash game play – last week vs. Jacksonville and I have to go right back to him this week, at home, vs. the Titans. He's playable every week at this point as long as his pricing stays in this range, and this week he has a fantastic matchup. I might like him even more for tournaments this week at his current 5% projected ownership. I suspect a lot of people may not be looking at him because of the Titans' win last week vs. New England. There's nothing to be concerned about here, at all. The Titans' secondary is awful. 

Luck has thrown the third most passes in the league. He has the second most touchdown passes, with 26. He's thrown 3 or more in six straight games – the third longest streak in NFL history. The Titans, and namely Malcolm Butler, are 31st vs. WR1s. They're 23rd vs. WR2s, and 17th vs. WR3s. 

This sets up very nicely, yet again, for Luck to have a three or four touchdown day, at a very reasonable price.  

 

Lower Tier :

Josh Rosen vs. Oakland Raiders ($4800)

Three things that you can expect me to write about, most weeks:  How bad the Raiders are, how bad the Bucs are and if you're paying down at QB, I like Josh Rosen. This week is no different. 

While Rosen hasn't really paid off with any type of upside, his salary hasn't sunk cash lineups. Now that the offense is looking competent, and the Raiders are in town, he's actually a very good play AND his salary hasn't been adjusted. 

I don't know how eager I'd be to roster him in my cash game lineups, as David Johnson may simply run all over the Raiders and Rosen won't be asked to do much, but for tournaments, pairing him with Larry Fitzgerald, and/or Christian Kirk, and/or Johnson makes for a very intriguing team stack.  


Running Backs

Top Tier :   

David Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders ($7500)

Just in time. David Johnson is getting touches, valuable touches, just in time for a visit by the Raiders. There is no bigger joke in the league than the franchise that will soon be relocating from Oakland, and Johnson will help deliver the punchline on Sunday. 

The Raiders have the 31st ranked DVOA overall; 32nd vs. the pass; 25th vs. the run, and 32nd vs. RB pass attempts. Add to that the fact that Arizona is a 5.5 point home favorite and Oakland is just as bad, or maybe worse, offensively, and it's pretty easy to see a 22-25 touch game for Johnson here. 

There are five RBs priced above him this week. I'm not sure why that is, and I'm fairly certain that won't be the case next week. David Johnson is back to being the ‘David Johnson' we thought he would be, and at $7500, I'll be playing him everywhere this week.  

Mid-Tier :

Tevin Coleman vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5300)

I don't like the options in the $5000-$5900 range this week. Some are dependant on gamescript – like Coleman is, for me – others, on the health of other RBs – like Philip Lindsay's situation with Royce Freeman possibly making his return. Coleman has gotten 10 or more carries in four straight games, and he's been targeted in the passing game 12 times in the last two weeks. I think he's the safest play here, and has obvious big upside. He scored 32.6 Draftkings points in week nine vs. the Redskins. 

The Cowboys have been very good vs. the run thus far, but have struggled against RBs who catch the ball out of the backfield. They have the 4th best rush DVOA but are 26th against pass-catching RBs. I like the gamescript for him here – I think Atlanta wins handily – and he's definitely in consideration for my cash game lineup. 

Lower Tier :

Alex Collins vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4400)

The Ravens may be starting someone other than Joe Flacco on Sunday when they face the Cincinnati Bengals. The same Bengals who fired their defensive coordinator on Monday after allowing 500 yards of offense for the third consecutive game. 

Whether Flacco plays or not isn't a ‘make or break' as to whether Collins is in play against the Bengals and their 27th ranked rush DVOA, but if Robert Griffin gets the start, I have to think it gives Collins a boost. Either way, he'll get goal line touches and enough work to pay off his $4400 price tag, with nice upside attached. 


Wide Receivers

Top Tier :   

Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8400)

I target the Bucs' secondary, every week. I always have some exposure to Beckham, every week. When doing one means doing the other, it sets up a ‘perfect storm'-type situation that I will have a lot of exposure to. 

The Bucs are still on a record-setting pace for passing yardage allowed, and Beckham can break a slate on any given week. This is a pretty easy sell; the only reason for any hesitation is the fact that Eli Manning is no longer good at football, and he could simply check down over and over. Luckily, the Giants defense is quite bad, and Eli will be forced to throw far more than the coaches would prefer. This is obviously good for Beckham. You can lock Beckham in, in all formats, this weekend. 

Mid-Tier : 

Amari Cooper @ Atlanta Falcons ($5400)

What a difference a couple of weeks makes. Amari Cooper was targeted 31 times in six games with the Raiders, and already has 18 in his first games with Dallas. While Dallas isn't exactly re-inventing the ‘air raid offense', they have a much better offense than what he was part of in Oakland. 

Cooper has quickly become the #1 target for the Cowboys; 8 targets in his first game, and 10 in his second. I expect him to see another 10 this week, in a game that Dallas should be trailing, and needing to catch up, or keep pace, at best. At $5400, he's a bargain this week. 

Lower Tier :

Maurice Harris vs. Houston Texans ($4500)

I have no way of knowing exactly what the Redskins' plan was for this season, but I think it's pretty fair to say that not much has gone according to that plan so far. I mean, I'm writing about Maurice Harris as a DFS play, so.. 

Last week, Harris caught all 5 of his targets for 52 yards; the week before that, he caught 10 of 12 targets for 124 yards. The Redskins defense isn't good, and the offense isn't good, either, but they have to pass the ball, and Harris has been the safety valve that ‘gun-shy' Alex Smith has grown comfortable with. At $4500, he's got a decent floor for cash games, and still brings some upside if you want to run him out there in a tournament lineup. 

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Tight Ends

Top Tier :   

Zach Ertz @ New Orleans Saints ($6600)

This week it's Ertz at the top of the list, since Kelce isn't on the main slate. Ertz is having an unbelievable season so far,, and he's got a great matchup again this week. That kind of goes without saying when you're getting more than 11 targets a game.I've said it before, but it remains true: Zach Ertz is an elite WR; he's just listed as a TE. 

If you're not completely punting the position, play Ertz. Don't try to get cute in cash games by trying to pick the random guy that hits this week. 

Lower Tier :

Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Oakland Raiders ($2900)

If you're not playing Zach Ertz, why not Ricky Seals-Jones? He's got a great matchup at home vs. the Raiders and their 32nd ranked defense vs. TEs. It makes sense to me. 

He's averaging over 5 targets per game, has big play capability, he's playing the Raiders, and he's $2900.. Sounds good indeed. 


Good Luck in Week 10!

Brad Moore is a DFS contributor for TheFantasyTakeaway.com. You can find him on Twitter @Bam79x  or contact him by email at Brad@TheFantasyTakeaway.com

6 Rookie Sleepers & Values That Will Win You a Title in 2018

By Joe Pollock

Last week in my article, 5 Later-Round Players Set to Explode in 2018, I talked about some undervalued veterans in new situations or coming off down years that are set to explode in 2018. This week, it's all about those underappreciated rookie sleepers & values.

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