Top Tier :
Andrew Luck vs. Miami Dolphins ($6400)
This is the third week in a row that I've mentioned Andrew Luck. This week, for the first time, he's priced in the top tier. His elite performances – and other great QB options being on the Thanksgiving Day slate – have finally forced the Draftkings salary-makers to bump his price over $6000.
Luck has 29 touchdowns on the season now. He's thrown at least three in seven straight games. He's at home this week vs. a Miami team that despite facing the fourth fewest pass attempts per game over the last four weeks – 29 – are allowing the sixth most passing touchdowns per game over that span – 2.33.
The Colts have the highest implied total of any team on the main slate – 30 – and are 10 point home favorites. Luck is averaging 26.4 Draftkings points at home this season; he has 16 touchdowns, only 2 interceptions and averages 304 passing yards per game at Lucas Oil Stadium. He's an automatic play for me, yet again, this week.
Lamar Jackson vs. Oakland Raiders ($5700)
This seems like such a reach, but it really isn't. A home QB, favored by double-digits, under $6000 vs. a team that has totally quit. I know, I know – ‘but, they won last week!' Yes, the Raiders won last week, against an Arizona team that just hasn't been playing solid football all season. Josh Rosen completed just nine of twenty passes in the game.
Lamar Jackson certainly isn't going to stand in the pocket and shred defenses with his arm at this stage of his career, but he looked alright in his start last week completing 13 of 19 passes. He runs the ball a little bit, too. He rushed TWENTY-SEVEN TIMES for 117 yards last week vs. Cincinnati. I certainly don't expect that kind of rush volume, but now that he's shown that, he should get more opportunities to look downfield as teams try to contain him in the pocket.
As usual, the Raiders will provide no resistance defensively, and with a solid start under his belt, I expect Jackson to at least match his 19.7 DK points from week 11 this week.
Russell Wilson @ Carolina Panthers ($5600)
Russell Wilson is less expensive than Lamar Jackson this week. That's certainly an indictment against the Raiders, which is reasonable, but Russ' pass volume has been up, he's facing a secondary that over the last four weeks has allowed 3.0 passing touchdowns per game – the second most in the league, and more than the Raiders – and he's actually been better on the road, averaging 20.1 DK points with 14 touchdown passes and only 4 interceptions.
The Seahawks are a 3 point road underdog, and the Panthers have faced only 19.2 rush attempts per game over the last four weeks – the eighth fewest over that span – so Wilson should see a high number of pass attempts. He's a nice play at this price, and may go overlooked in tournaments this week.
Top Tier :
Nick Chubb @ Cincinnati Bengals ($6300)
This is definitely the cheapest ‘top-tier' RB I've liked this season. Between the Thanksgiving Day slate and the teams on bye, Chubb is actually my overall top RB this week. On the road, as a 3 point underdog seems like an odd place to find a ‘lock-and-load' cash game RB, but that's what he is this week.
The Bengals are on the list; the list of teams you want to target every week. Last week, the Lamar Jackson / Gus Edwards – led Ravens rushed for 265 yards @ a 4.9 yards per carry clip. Read that again, and tell me you don't like Chubb @ $6300.
Chubb is coming off a 20 carry, 3 catch, 209 yard, 2 touchdown, 38.9 Draftkings point game. Now, he gets an even better matchup. I'll have heavy exposure to him this week vs. the Bengals.
Marlon Mack vs. Miami Dolphins ($5500)
What makes a good cash game RB? A home favorite = check; not just a home favorite, but a 9 point home favorite. A high game total = check; not just a high game total, but a 30 point team total – the highest on the slate. A matchup vs. a bad run defense = check; not only are the Dolphins bad vs. the rush, they're allowing 134 rush yards per game over the last month @ 5.7 yards per carry – 134 rush yards per game is fourth most in the league over that time.
At $5500, with ALL the boxes checked, Mack is a lock for me in cash lineups.
Lower Tier :
Josh Adams vs. New York Giants ($3800)
This might be the biggest miss on the slate in terms of pricing. It might also be reasonable, based on the fact that his touches aren't guaranteed. Even if they are, he only had 10 total touches last week, but he did find the endzone to buoy his score, as he finished with 16.2 DK points (@ a $3300 price tag).
The Eagles are a 6 point home favorite vs. a Giants' defense that has allowed the third most rush yards per game over the last month – 135.3 @ 5.3 yards per carry.
IF Adams is going to be the primary RB in this game, and something to that effect is announced prior to the game, he's going to be the chalk play this week. At $3800, you eat this good chalk, and move on.
Top Tier :
Odell Beckham Jr. @ Philadelphia Eagles ($8800)
The Eagles' secondary is in shambles. It's been bad all year, and all of their starters are now out. For the second consecutive week, Odell Beckham is my favorite play at the top of the WR heap.
The knock on OBJ this year is his QB. That's a fair criticism. Eli Manning is nothing more than ‘serviceable' at this point. However, in spots where we've expected him to ‘be good' – he has been. That's all that's needed for Beckham to pay off his price tag.
The really exciting thing about OBJ is that he hasn't had that game yet. That 10 catch, 200 yard, 2 touchdown game that you KNOW is coming at some point. With all the injuries in the Eagles' defensive backfield, this could be the week for OBJ.
Doug Baldwin @ Carolina Panthers ($5100)
The season has been a write-off for the most part, thus far, for Doug Baldwin. He's been dealing with various injuries since the outset. It looks like he's now healthy – much healthier than he's been, certainly – and it's translating into performance on the field.
He saw 10 targets last week, catching 7 of them for 52 yards and a touchdown. That's what I've been expecting from him for a few weeks already.
This week, he gets a road matchup against the Panthers, who have allowed 22 passing touchdowns this season – the second most in the league.
Lower Tier :
Danny Amendola @ Indianapolis Colts ($4600)
Play someone from the Miami offense? It does make me a bit uncomfortable, but it makes sense. At $4600, in this matchup, Danny Amendola is a solid play. He's a cash game play if you need to save salary.
Over the last five weeks, Amendola has seen 41 targets – 8.2 per game. He's averaging 14.5 DK points per game over that period, with a high game of 20.4, and only one game under 10 – 9.7 vs. the Jets in week nine.
He's averaging over 3x value over the last five games at this salary. It does seem like a thin play, but it's actually quite solid.
Top Tier :
George Kittle @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6200)
The TE category continues to be a wasteland outside of the top couple of options. Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski are two of the top-priced players, and sandwiched between them is George Kittle, in a plus matchup against Tampa Bay.
Kittle has had at least 75 yards in seven of the ten games he's played. He's averaging just over seven targets per game, and 15.4 Draftkings points per game. All he needs to do is have an average game, and find the endzone for him to pay off in all formats. There's a good chance of that this week. The Bucs are allowing the second most DK points per game to TEs this season, and giving up touchdowns at the fourth highest rate.
Lower Tier :
Nick Vannett @ Carolina Panthers ($2700)
The team that allows more points to the TE position is the Carolina Panthers. They've given up nine touchdowns to TEs in ten games. Russell Wilson spreads his redzone targets around – Doug Baldwin has seven; David Moore, six ; Vannett, five – so Nick should be in line to get a look in the scoring area. At $2700, he's as good a punt play as there is.
Good Luck in Week 12!