Top Tier :
Carson Wentz @ New Orleans Saints ($6300)
There are some really nice options at the top of the QB heap this week. Cam Newton is a very attractive play, as is Drew Brees. Wentz is priced between those two guys and is in arguably the best spot.
This game has a 56 point implied total, with the Eagles being an 8.5 point underdog. The Saints have been extremely stout against the rush – they currently have the 3rd best rush defense in terms of DVOA – and the Eagles are a pass-first team, so it definitely figures that Wentz will be passing the ball a lot. The Eagles are passing the ball 39 times a game on average, and this game will most certainly be be over that. While the Saints have been stout against the rush, they've been shredded through the air. They currently have the 29th ranked pass DVOA.
Of the guys at the top, I think Wentz has the easiest path to the highest volume, and for cash games, that's what we're looking for from our QBs; guaranteed volume against bad pas defenses.
Andrew Luck vs. Tennessee Titans ($5900)
Luck was my mid-tier pick – and cash game play – last week vs. Jacksonville and I have to go right back to him this week, at home, vs. the Titans. He's playable every week at this point as long as his pricing stays in this range, and this week he has a fantastic matchup. I might like him even more for tournaments this week at his current 5% projected ownership. I suspect a lot of people may not be looking at him because of the Titans' win last week vs. New England. There's nothing to be concerned about here, at all. The Titans' secondary is awful.
Luck has thrown the third most passes in the league. He has the second most touchdown passes, with 26. He's thrown 3 or more in six straight games – the third longest streak in NFL history. The Titans, and namely Malcolm Butler, are 31st vs. WR1s. They're 23rd vs. WR2s, and 17th vs. WR3s.
This sets up very nicely, yet again, for Luck to have a three or four touchdown day, at a very reasonable price.
Lower Tier :
Josh Rosen vs. Oakland Raiders ($4800)
Three things that you can expect me to write about, most weeks: How bad the Raiders are, how bad the Bucs are and if you're paying down at QB, I like Josh Rosen. This week is no different.
While Rosen hasn't really paid off with any type of upside, his salary hasn't sunk cash lineups. Now that the offense is looking competent, and the Raiders are in town, he's actually a very good play AND his salary hasn't been adjusted.
I don't know how eager I'd be to roster him in my cash game lineups, as David Johnson may simply run all over the Raiders and Rosen won't be asked to do much, but for tournaments, pairing him with Larry Fitzgerald, and/or Christian Kirk, and/or Johnson makes for a very intriguing team stack.
Top Tier :
David Johnson vs. Oakland Raiders ($7500)
Just in time. David Johnson is getting touches, valuable touches, just in time for a visit by the Raiders. There is no bigger joke in the league than the franchise that will soon be relocating from Oakland, and Johnson will help deliver the punchline on Sunday.
The Raiders have the 31st ranked DVOA overall; 32nd vs. the pass; 25th vs. the run, and 32nd vs. RB pass attempts. Add to that the fact that Arizona is a 5.5 point home favorite and Oakland is just as bad, or maybe worse, offensively, and it's pretty easy to see a 22-25 touch game for Johnson here.
There are five RBs priced above him this week. I'm not sure why that is, and I'm fairly certain that won't be the case next week. David Johnson is back to being the ‘David Johnson' we thought he would be, and at $7500, I'll be playing him everywhere this week.
Tevin Coleman vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5300)
I don't like the options in the $5000-$5900 range this week. Some are dependant on gamescript – like Coleman is, for me – others, on the health of other RBs – like Philip Lindsay's situation with Royce Freeman possibly making his return. Coleman has gotten 10 or more carries in four straight games, and he's been targeted in the passing game 12 times in the last two weeks. I think he's the safest play here, and has obvious big upside. He scored 32.6 Draftkings points in week nine vs. the Redskins.
The Cowboys have been very good vs. the run thus far, but have struggled against RBs who catch the ball out of the backfield. They have the 4th best rush DVOA but are 26th against pass-catching RBs. I like the gamescript for him here – I think Atlanta wins handily – and he's definitely in consideration for my cash game lineup.
Lower Tier :
Alex Collins vs. Cincinnati Bengals ($4400)
The Ravens may be starting someone other than Joe Flacco on Sunday when they face the Cincinnati Bengals. The same Bengals who fired their defensive coordinator on Monday after allowing 500 yards of offense for the third consecutive game.
Whether Flacco plays or not isn't a ‘make or break' as to whether Collins is in play against the Bengals and their 27th ranked rush DVOA, but if Robert Griffin gets the start, I have to think it gives Collins a boost. Either way, he'll get goal line touches and enough work to pay off his $4400 price tag, with nice upside attached.
Top Tier :
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8400)
I target the Bucs' secondary, every week. I always have some exposure to Beckham, every week. When doing one means doing the other, it sets up a ‘perfect storm'-type situation that I will have a lot of exposure to.
The Bucs are still on a record-setting pace for passing yardage allowed, and Beckham can break a slate on any given week. This is a pretty easy sell; the only reason for any hesitation is the fact that Eli Manning is no longer good at football, and he could simply check down over and over. Luckily, the Giants defense is quite bad, and Eli will be forced to throw far more than the coaches would prefer. This is obviously good for Beckham. You can lock Beckham in, in all formats, this weekend.
Amari Cooper @ Atlanta Falcons ($5400)
What a difference a couple of weeks makes. Amari Cooper was targeted 31 times in six games with the Raiders, and already has 18 in his first games with Dallas. While Dallas isn't exactly re-inventing the ‘air raid offense', they have a much better offense than what he was part of in Oakland.
Cooper has quickly become the #1 target for the Cowboys; 8 targets in his first game, and 10 in his second. I expect him to see another 10 this week, in a game that Dallas should be trailing, and needing to catch up, or keep pace, at best. At $5400, he's a bargain this week.
Lower Tier :
Maurice Harris vs. Houston Texans ($4500)
I have no way of knowing exactly what the Redskins' plan was for this season, but I think it's pretty fair to say that not much has gone according to that plan so far. I mean, I'm writing about Maurice Harris as a DFS play, so..
Last week, Harris caught all 5 of his targets for 52 yards; the week before that, he caught 10 of 12 targets for 124 yards. The Redskins defense isn't good, and the offense isn't good, either, but they have to pass the ball, and Harris has been the safety valve that ‘gun-shy' Alex Smith has grown comfortable with. At $4500, he's got a decent floor for cash games, and still brings some upside if you want to run him out there in a tournament lineup.
Top Tier :
Zach Ertz @ New Orleans Saints ($6600)
This week it's Ertz at the top of the list, since Kelce isn't on the main slate. Ertz is having an unbelievable season so far,, and he's got a great matchup again this week. That kind of goes without saying when you're getting more than 11 targets a game.I've said it before, but it remains true: Zach Ertz is an elite WR; he's just listed as a TE.
If you're not completely punting the position, play Ertz. Don't try to get cute in cash games by trying to pick the random guy that hits this week.
Lower Tier :
Ricky Seals-Jones vs. Oakland Raiders ($2900)
If you're not playing Zach Ertz, why not Ricky Seals-Jones? He's got a great matchup at home vs. the Raiders and their 32nd ranked defense vs. TEs. It makes sense to me.
He's averaging over 5 targets per game, has big play capability, he's playing the Raiders, and he's $2900.. Sounds good indeed.
Good Luck in Week 10!