Top Tier :
Cam Newton @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6600)
We have a full 13-game main slate this week, so there are lots of great plays to choose from. At the top of the QB heap, the cash game play is quite clear – it's Cam Newton vs. the Bucs. There's no need to over-complicate it. The Bucs get smashed by QBs, Cam has as good a cash game floor as anyone, with high upside to match.
The Bucs allow 2.36 passing touchdowns per game – the most in the league. They allow the sixth most passing yards per game – 291.45, and the fourth most Draftkings points per game – 22.99, to Qbs. Newton threw for 247 yards, 2 touchdowns and ran 11 times for another 33 yards back in week 9 vs. the Bucs. Considering the Panthers scored 42 points in that game and Cam only had 21.18 DK points, he was extremely unlucky; he could've just as easily had 40.
I'm still not sure exactly how I'm going to construct my cash game lineups, but I do know that Newton is my QB if I'm paying up.
Lamar Jackson @ Atlanta Falcons ($5900)
Jackson was my mid-tier pick for last week, as well. I commented that @ $5700, it sort of felt like a reach. Well, this week @ $5900, it certainly doesn't feel like anything than other than a LOCK play. We haven't seen anything close to his ceiling yet, and his floor is about as good as it gets.
In his first start, he only attempted 19 passes, he didn't score a touchdown in the air or on the ground, threw an interception, fumbled, and still had 19.9 DK points. Last week, he attempted only 25 passes, had two total touchdowns, two interceptions, fumbled, and still got you 22.2 DK points. Those matchups were against the Bengals and the Raiders, and this week he gets the Falcons. Let the good times roll.
The Falcons are ranked 29th in pass DVOA and 31st vs. the rush, earning them the honor of being ranked 32nd overall. Jackson should have plenty of great opportunities in both the running and passing games this week.
Lower Tier :
Chase Daniel @ New York Giants ($4800)
This might be the best sub-$5000 QB play of the season, thus far. Last week @ Detroit, Daniel showed he was quite capable of delivering value at his low-salary ($4400) by putting up 19.4 DK points. This week, he has a similarly advantageous matchup @ the Giants.
The Bears are ranked in the bottom five teams in the league in terms of adjusted line yards, and the Giants have the 27th ranked pass defense. If they're going to reach or surpass their 25 point implied total, it'll be done through the air. I wouldn't be comfortable playing Daniel in cash games, but he makes for a decent tournament play at this price.
Top Tier :
Christian McCaffrey @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($8800)
This is the spot. It's been the spot, and it will continue to be the spot until wholesale changes are made by Tampa Bay. Cam Newton / McCaffrey stacks will be all over the DFS landscape this Sunday, for good reason.
McCaffrey is coming off an explosive week 12 performance in which he tallied 52.7 Draftkings points. He's already lit up the Bucs once this season. In week 9, he put up 32.7 DK points on 22 touches against them. Did I mention the Panthers have a 29 point implied total? Yeah, there's that.
In cash games this week, he's a lock play for me. His ownership should be high enough that fading him will be a very, very risky thing to do.
Phillip Lindsay @ Cincinnati Bengals ($5400)
The Bengals season has been in free-fall mode for several weeks now. The defense has been consistently bad all season, and the effort level looks like it's getting worse of late.
The Broncos are 4.5 point road favorites against the Bengals' 30th ranked rush defense, and 32nd ranked defense vs. pass catching RBs. Lindsay should absolutely roll in this game. Royce Freeman will steal some carries from him, but @ $5400, that isn't a big deterrent from loading up on Phillip Lindsay this week.
He's one of my favorite plays on the entire slate. He's a definite cash game play for me, and as long as his ownership isn't projected to be astronomical – and I don't think it will be – I'll be overweight on the field in tournaments, also.
Lower Tier :
T.J. Yeldon vs. Indianapolis Colts ($4400)
T.J. Yeldon is in play this week, primarily because Leonard Fournette lost his mind last week and started throwing punches on the sideline, and also because Blake Bortles is bad at football (as we all know) and it's led to his benching in favor of Cody Kessler. So, this is pretty self-explanatory, right?
The Jags have been a disaster. Cody Kessler has, largely, been one as well. Carlos Hyde's touches will, presumably, be limited by a game-script that will not favor him. It seems to me that the only bright spot from a fantasy perspective on the Jags' side is T.J. Yeldon. A $4400 price tag is pretty interesting in this spot, indeed.
The Colts rank 28th vs. pass catching RBs. Yeldon is about the Jags best option in this spot, when you consider game-script, and their QB situation. At the lower end, I like this play. Even for cash, if you need to.
Top Tier :
Tyreek Hill @ Oakland Raiders ($9100)
I typically shy away from paying for the top WR on the board, especially when that WR is $9100. I have no such concerns this week with Hill. The Chiefs have a 35 point implied total, on the road – where Tyreek thrives – against the 32nd ranked pass defense. It's a fantastic spot.
On the road this season, he's averaging 7 receptions, 123 yards and 1.3 touchdowns per game. That's good for 30.2 Draftkings points. He's had at least 42 DK points in three games – 45.3, 42.2 and 46.5.
Ownership should be tempered by his big price tag, which makes him a great tournament option as well as a cash game play. He may not make my cash game lineup, but he's definitely my favorite WR on the slate.
Corey Davis vs. New York Jets ($5500)
I'm no fan of Corey Davis as a football player. I actually don't think he's a very good player. That being said, he's the clear #1 for the Titans, he sees a lot of targets and he's not priced like it.
Davis has had two games of at least 23.5 DK points in his last three – 28.5 and 23.5. The Titans are a 9 point home favorite, with a 25 point implied team total. If they're getting there, Davis is going to be involved.
Lower Tier :
Josh Reynolds @ Detroit Lions ($4900)
With Cooper Kupp out, Josh Reynolds has become an active part of the Rams offense. A Rams offense that is lighting up the scoreboard every week. In a happy coincidence, the Lions secondary is getting lit up every week! I think this could work out.
The Lions have given up 330 passing yards, or more, in two of their last three games – games against the Bears and Panthers – and now they get to face Jared Goff? This is a great spot for Reynolds @ only $4900.
Top Tier :
Travis Kelce @ Oakland Raiders ($7000)
It's Travis Kelce's turn this week. It's not completely arbitrary, however – he's facing the Oakland Raiders. The league's worst pass defense, in terms of DVOA, and also the worst, specifically against TEs, will have to deal with the Chiefs offense this week.
Kansas City has an implied team total of 34.75 – the highest of the week. The ONLY thing not to like about Kelce this week is his $7000 price tag. It's a bit prohibitive, but like I mentioned regarding Tyreek Hill, the high price will keep ownership down so you can play him more comfortably in tournaments.
Lower Tier :
Cameron Brate vs. Carolina Panthers ($3700)
This is a really nice price for Brate. The Carolina Panthers have allowed the most touchdowns in the league to TEs this season. They've allowed 9 on the season, in 11 games. We know Jameis Winston loves targeting his TEs. Matter of fact, Brate caught an early touchdown last week vs. the 49ers. He's a nice play at a low price this week.
Good Luck in Week 13!