Top Tier :
Cam Newton vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($6600)
This is the easiest call of the week, and one of the easier calls of the entire season. Cam Newton is the best cash game QB most weeks, and this week he's clearly the best play on the board, IF you like paying up for QBs in cash games.
Newton's floor is fantastic because of his rushing upside. He's getting you more than a passing touchdown's worth of points every week on the ground. He's averaging 44.1 rushing yards per game, hasn't had fewer than 29, and has gone over 50 twice. He now gets a home game against the Bucs.
As we all know by now, the Bucs are an automatic target, every week. The league's worst pass defense, and last-ranked DVOA overall. They allow 332 passing yards, 2.86 tds and 27.3 Draftkings points per game to QBs. If you're paying up, Newton is the play here.
Ryan Fitzpatrick @ Carolina Panthers ($5500)
It never really went away; it was just mistreated, under-appreciated and disrespected. I'm talking, of course, about the #Fitzmagic. It provided early-season NFL with all the fantasy goodness it could handle. Then, attempts were made to extinguish it; to cast it aside like it wasn't there, and never really happened. Try as they did – they couldn't stop it!
Todd Monken knows what he's doing. His offense is filled with weapons and is humming along. Ryan Fitzpatrick is averaging 26.8 Draftkings points per game. That is higher than anyone on the main slate, not named Patrick Mahomes – who is averaging 30.5 – and he's $1500 cheaper than Mahomes.
He's a 6.5 point road underdog, facing the league's 20th ranked pass DVOA. The Panthers are going to score at will and it'll be all on Fitzpatrick to respond. He's a great cash game play, and because of his upside, is in play for tournaments, also.
Lower Tier :
Case Keenum vs. Houston Texans ($4900)
If for some reason you don't believe in #Fitzmagic, Case Keenum is your cash game QB this week. Write it down so you don't forget. The Texans pass defense is not good, and at $4900, I'll be locking Cash Keenum into my case lineups…or something like that. There's a perception that the Texans defense, particularly their pass defense, is pretty good. Most of the numbers look good, so why am I saying they're bad? Let's have a look..
Tom Brady : 26/39, 277 yards, 3 touchdowns. 27 points for the Pats.
Andrew Luck: 40/62, 464 yards, 4 touchdowns. 34 points for the Colts.
The rest? – Blaine Gabbert, Josh Allen, Eli Manning, Cody Kessler/Blake Bortles, Brock Osweiler and Dak Prescott – Backups and ‘should be backups.' The lot of them.
Keenum will be the first competent QB they will have faced since Andrew Luck in week 4. Keenum is THE cash play this week. Don't lose your note.
Top Tier :
Alvin Kamara vs. Los Angeles Rams ($7300)
I considered posting a picture of Terrell Owens eating from a five-gallon bucket of popcorn as a lead-in to this game. It is filled with DFS goodness on both sides of the ball. The over/under is SIXTY, as I type this. 60.
Alvin Kamara is priced as the number six RB this week. At home, as a favorite, versus the twenty-fifth ranked run DVOA, in a game with a projected total of sixty? I'm in. We've seen how the Saints use Kamara. They line him up everywhere and do a fantastic job of getting him the ball in space. He is my second favorite play of the week at RB, and he's a cash game lock for me. 60 points. Get your popcorn ready.
Mark Ingram vs. Los Angeles Rams ($5000)
When I said that Alvin Kamara was my ‘second-favorite RB play of the week,' it was because Mark Ingram is my favorite play. $5000 in a matchup with the Rams is fantastic. He has the third highest projected tournament ownership at RB at 17.5%, behind Kamara (22.5%) and Todd Gurley (32.5%). I fully expect that by game time on Sunday afternoon that Ingram will be 25 – 30% owned, and rightfully so.
The Green Bay Packers followed the formula, stuck to the blueprint and put themselves in a position to beat the Rams last week by running the ball. The only mistake they made was not trading Ty Montgomery a week earlier. Montgomery doesn't play for the Saints, Mark Ingram does, and he's going to be a focal point of the offense this week.
The Rams allowed 101 yards rushing on 18 carries last week. Two of those carries went for touchdowns. With the two-headed backfield that the Saints have, I think playing both of the Saints RBs is a viable strategy in cash games. Home RBs, who are heavily involved in the passing game, in a game with a sixty-point total for $12,300. I like it. As of now, I'm planning on playing them both in cash games.
Lower Tier :
Isaiah Crowell @ Miami Dolphins ($4200)
I think if you're paying down in this range for cash game RBs this week, you're doing it wrong. That being said, Miami is a really bad football team, and they're allowing opposing RBs to carve them up. They watched Lamar Miller run for 133 yards on only 18 carries and score a touchdown against them last Thursday night.
The Dolphins have faced the second most rush attempts per game – 26.8; allowed the fourth most rushing yards per game – 125.1; and have given up the fourth most Draftkings points per game to opposing RBs – 31.65. When we add the fact that they're the twenty-first ranked DVOA defense in terms of defending RB pass attempts, and sixteenth versus the run, all the other stats come in to focus, and it becomes clear that all starting RBs are in play vs. Miami…Did I mention Lamar Miller rushed for over 130 yards against them last week?
If you're going to be wrong this week, at least do it right and play Crowell.
I mean, if Lamar Miller can do it….
Top Tier :
Robert Woods @ New Orleans Saints ($7000)
SIXTY! The over/under is sixty. That was the deciding factor in settling on a top tier WR pick this week. Woods vs. Ken Crawley in THIS game, is as solid a spot as you can wish for. Brandin Cooks is also in a great spot, obviously, but not quite as juicy as the opportunity for Woods.
The Saints DVOA rankings: vs. the pass – 29th; vs WR1's – 32nd; vs WR2's – 32nd. So, regardless of who's playing what role and categorized as which WR, the Saints won't be covering them. They'll be chasing them around, just trying to keep them in front of them.
Woods leads the Rams' WRs in targets, catches, yards and is second in touchdowns. He's as solid as it gets in this matchup, and you must have a piece, or several, of this game.
Desean Jackson @ Carolina Panthers ($5000)
This game is playing second-fiddle to the game in New Orleans this week, but you'll definitely want exposure to it. Whether you believe in certain types of magic or not is irrelevant because Desean Jackson does. He's embraced the #Fitzmagic and has THRIVED on it.
‘DJax' is averaging 84.9 yards per game; a 1360 yard pace. In the first four games of the season, with Ryan Fitzpatrick under center, he averaged 106 receiving yards per game, and caught 17 of his 21 targets. He was efficient AND making explosive plays down the field. Typically, field stretchers are inefficient because of where they see their targets, but Jackson and Fitzpatrick have shown great chemistry and that's led to great efficiency.
Cam Newton is going to light up the Bucs' secondary like a Christmas tree, all day long, so it's a very safe bet that Jackson will be targeted early and often in this game out of necessity; they'll be trying to not get blown out.
Lower Tier :
D.J. Moore vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4300)
Do I love Devin Funchess this week? Yes. He's a solid play. Anyone wearing a Panthers jersey who's part of the 53-man roster and active for the game is in play vs. the Buccaneers. There's no doubt I will have exposure to Funchess, however, I like D.J. Moore and his $1300 discount a bit better.
Cam Newton is going to be able to do anything he wants on Sunday; just like everyone has that has faced the Bucs, thus far. Well, everyone not named ‘Baker Mayfield', at least. With Moore having somewhat of a breakout game last week, it seems very reasonable to me to expect Newton to keep it going and keep building his relationship with his rookie WR; if for no other reason than he simply can. The Bucs can't do anything about it. Funchess and Moore could both easily reach the 100 yard bonus. It's not an ‘either or' situation here.
I think at this price, if you decide to not pay attention to the value plays that are available to you this week, and go with some ‘questionable' roster construction that leaves you needing a cheap WR, Moore is a solid play. If you build your cash lineups correctly, you won't need him there, but for tournaments? I like him a lot.
Top Tier :
Travis Kelce @ Cleveland Browns ($6600)
This is not ground-breaking analysis. Travis Kelce is the only elite play at the position this week and he gets a plus matchup against the Browns. Cleveland is allowing the fifth most targets per game to the position, and the Chiefs may be without Tyreek Hill, though it looks like he'll be good to go.
Kelce is averaging just under 9 targets per game, and has had 10 or more in four of eight games. He's as a safe as play as there is most weeks, and that definitely applies this week. If safety at TE is what you want, Kelce is who you want.
Lower Tier :
Chris Herndon @ Miami Dolphins ($3000)
It looks like the Jets are going to be without both Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa this week, and Sam Darnold has already shown some chemistry with Herndon.
Herndon has caught 7 of 11 targets the last three weeks, and has a touchdown in each game. For $3000, against a terrible Miami defense, Herndon makes for a decent punt play at TE.
Good luck this week!